What prediction markets say about AOC's possible presidential run

Amethyst Martinez, USA TODAY NETWORKWed, May 13, 2026 at 1:21 PM UTC

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Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is one of the main names being thrown around for a possible Democratic nominee in the next presidential race.

And in an interview this past weekend, she said her ambition was to "change this country" — only strengthening the speculation for a White House bid.

Here's what the congresswoman said, and what prediction markets are currently thinking about who could be the next Democratic nominee in the 2028 election.

Kalshi, Polymarket odds on Democratic nominee

While no major candidate has officially announced a 2028 bid, people are already placing odds on big names, Ocasio-Cortez included.

Kalshi and Polymarket are prediction-market platforms that allow users to buy shares predicting real-life events, and the odds (and price) change as traders bet.

On Polymarket, the likelihood of AOC being the Democratic presidential nominee was 8.6%, according to Polymarket odds, per live bets as of Wednesday, May 13. The market on AOC had a trading volume of over $12.8 million.

In total, the prediction market had a trading volume of over $1.1 billion. Gov. Gavin Newsom remained the frontrunner amongst market players at 24%.

Polymarket odds place former Vice President Kamala Harris at 9%.

On Kalshi, Newsom still leads the pack with 25% predicting his nomination. But AOC comes second in odds, at 10%. Harris follows closely behind at 9.8%, according to Kalshi prediction odds. In total, the prediction market had a trading volume of $105 million.

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Odds can fluctuate quickly as users trade in or out of the market.

What AOC has said about running for president

The progressive joined Democratic strategist David Axelrod for an interview this past week, who asked her flat-out if she was considering a presidential or Senate run. In response, she said her "ambition is to change this country."

"They assume that my ambition is a title or a seat," Ocasio-Cortez said. "And my ambition is way bigger than that. My ambition is to change this country."

The crowd erupted in cheers after her response.

"Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go," she said. "But single-payer healthcare is forever, a living wage is forever, workers' rights are forever, women's rights, all of that."

This is not the first time she has had to answer about her own political ambitions. In February, AOC was asked a similar question during a panel, the interviewer saying: “So, when you run for president, are you going to impose a wealth tax or a billionaire’s tax?”

Instead of answering flat-out, the congresswoman said that Americans “don’t have to wait for any one president to impose a wealth tax.”

“I think that it needs to be done expeditiously."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What prediction markets say about AOC's possible presidential run

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